What issues are most important to the Hidden Tribes this election?
Summary: More in Common surveyed Americans to understand what issues the Hidden Tribes were thinking about in the 2024 election. We find that the Progressive Activists and Devoted Conservatives have very different ideas of what problems are facing the country today. Moreover, they are out of sync with the kitchen-table-type issues important to the Exhausted Majority. Despite differing perspectives, one issue unites the electorate: high cost of living/inflation.
On the day of a dead-even election, journalists and pollsters continue to speculate who will win, and even begin to write their post-election narratives on what issues mattered most to different groups of American voters. Will concerns about the economy galvanize young men turn out to vote for Trump? Will protections for abortion rights prompt women to secretly vote for Harris? Only thorough post-election analysis will be able to fully answer these questions.
In the meantime, to better understand what problems were top of mind for the Hidden Tribes1 as they headed to the polls, More in Common asked 2,000 Americans in October the following: What do you think is the most important problem facing our country today? Our Hidden Tribes analysis is below.
1. The wings have very different understandings of what issues are of concern.
Progressive Activists and Devoted Conservatives, our most left- and right-wing tribes respectively, have differing priorities for the election. When asked about the top three problems facing our country, Progressive Activists list environment/pollution/climate change (53%); healthcare (36%); and election reform/democracy (34%). Meanwhile, Devoted Conservatives cite immigration (68%), high cost of living/inflation (62%), and the government/poor leadership (39%) as their top issues.
Moreover, each tribe’s top three issues received minimal interest from the other. While 68% of Devoted Conservatives cite immigration as a top-three issue, only 2% of Progressive Activists do. Similarly, while 53% of Progressive Activists put environment as a top-three issue, 0% (none) of Devoted Conservatives did. The only exception is inflation, which Progressive Activists display significant interest in (and is overall the most salient issue this cycle).
2. The wings are also out of step with the Exhausted Majority.
The Exhausted Majority, which represents 67% of Americans, prioritized issues that one might consider “kitchen-table" – high cost of living/inflation (44%), immigration (25%), the economy in general (25%), and healthcare (23%).
Some of the Exhausted Majority’s top issues overlap with the wings. Immigration, for example, is a concern shared by Devoted Conservatives, while healthcare is a priority shared by Progressive Activists. Moreover, high cost of living/inflation is an important issue across all tribes.
Yet there is a clear distinction in the types of problems the Exhausted Majority thinks are the most important, prioritizing quality of life issues over abstract topics such as leadership and democracy. And even for the issues that overlap with the wings, the Exhausted Majority has different priority levels. On immigration, for instance, only 25% of the Exhausted Majority cite it as a top three issue, whereas 68% of Devoted Conservatives do.
The graph below details the Exhausted Majority’s top issues, comparing interest from wing-tribes (Progressive Activists, Traditional Conservatives, and Devoted Conservatives). While Traditional Conservatives and Devoted Conservatives are typically grouped together as the two right-leaning wings, their divergences here merit separation.
3. Inflation is the only cross-cutting issue.
Despite different priorities, one issue unites the electorate: high cost of living/inflation. Forty-four percent of Americans agree that cost of living/inflation is one of the most important problems facing the country, the highest of any problem. Moreover, inflation received the most support out of all policy issues within every Exhausted Majority tribe (37% for Traditional Liberals; 47% for Passive Liberals; 48% for Politically Disengaged; 46% for Moderates).
Today, Americans head into voting booths with different priorities that inevitably shape who they will choose to vote for. Highlighting what these priorities are – and how they may differ from our own – can help shed light on how voters are making their decisions and deepen understanding of our fellow Americans.
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Methodology
From October 8 to October 15, 2024, More in Common partnered with YouGov to conduct online survey interviews with N = 2,000 US adults. The data was weighted to be representative of the US adult population using propensity scores, with score functions including gender, age, race, education, and religion. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 Presidential vote choice, and a four-way stratification of gender, age (6-category), race (5-category), and education (4-category). The margin of error (adjusted for weighting) is +/-2.44 for the US average and higher for subgroups.
Our 2018 Hidden Tribes study identified seven “tribes” that Americans fall into. These tribes are based on an individuals’ worldviews, core beliefs, and attitudes, which predict views on social and political issues with greater accuracy than demographic factors such as race, gender, or income. Four of these tribes – comprising 67% of Americans – are part of the “Exhausted Majority.” These Americans do not necessarily share policy preferences, yet they are fed up with polarization. Meanwhile, the most active tribes are the “wings” on the right and left, who often dominate the political conversations, are more ideologically rigid, and have greater distrust and animosity of the opposing side. You can read more in our full report and take the quiz to see what tribe you are.