Trump won with these voters. Now their support is shifting.
In the 2024 presidential election, President Trump won the popular vote by expanding his coalition in unprecedented ways. More moderates, independents, Hispanics, Black Americans, young Americans, and voters in blue states supported him than any other Republican presidential candidate this century. Much of this support was gained by persuading voters that he shared their priorities. Eighteen months later, some of these dynamics appear to be shifting.
The president’s decision to engage in a war with Iran has been controversial. Our most recent survey, conducted from March 30 to April 6 among a nationally representative sample of 1,469 US adults and 1,901 2024 Trump voters, finds that just 25 percent of Americans support the war while 52 percent are opposed.
Recent headlines have focused on critics within the conservative media landscape, pointing to elite voices like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly who have publicly broken with the president over the war. Yet this opposition risks being overstated: six in ten of the president’s voters are supportive of the war, his overall approval rating has dipped only modestly, and few Trump voters regret voting for him, with the notable exception of the Reluctant Right.
In this analysis, we use the lens of More in Common’s Beyond MAGA segmentation to examine how the members of the President’s coalition—with their distinct viewpoints, priorities, and breaking points—are responding to the war. We explore where the coalition is holding and where early signs of strain are beginning to emerge.
Here are our key findings.
1. Support for the Iran war is strong among Trump’s most loyal voters—MAGA Hardliners and Anti-Woke Conservatives—who largely see it as aligned with American interests. Mainline Republicans are less certain.
An overwhelming majority (87 percent) of MAGA Hardliners supports the war. They believe the war was started to “protect American interests” (83 percent) and that it is in line with an “America First” agenda (76 percent). This segment also broadly reports feeling safer living in the US since the war started.
“If this action is what it takes to help this country thrive and survive, I’m for it. This will also help to ensure our country’s safety against Iran’s regime.”
— Alexa, 47-year-old White woman and MAGA Hardliner from Thibodaux, Louisiana
Anti-Woke Conservatives show similar levels of support. Seven in ten (71 percent) support his decision to go to war and believe (72 percent) the war was started to “protect American interests.”
“While I don’t like that it seems to always be our country that has to be involved in other countries’ relations, I think it was almost necessary in this case. It was a dangerous, evil regime that was killing their own citizens and chanting ‘death to America’ while also threatening the life of our president. It does not make me think of any particular example though.”
— Ella, 33-year-old Mixed race woman and Anti-Woke Conservative Trump voter from Mansfield, Massachusetts
Mainline Republicans show more ambivalence. While few actively oppose the war (16 percent), they are the most neutral of the segments, with 25 percent saying they neither support nor oppose the war. This uncertainty likely relates to the Mainline Republicans’ lower engagement with political news and current events.
2. The Reluctant Right—20 percent of Trump’s coalition—are mostly opposed to the war. This opposition is colored by a skeptical interpretation of the motivations for starting the war and greater frustration with its effects on their lives.
The Reluctant Right’s views diverge sharply from the other Trump voter types: 54 percent oppose the decision to go to war with Iran, while only 26 percent support it. A mere five percent have “a lot of confidence” in President Trump’s decision-making concerning the war, compared, for instance, to 85 percent of MAGA Hardliners.
Unlike other parts of the president’s coalition, they show distrust of Trump’s motives: they are more likely to see the war as serving President Trump and his reputation (31 percent) than American interests (25 percent). When asked whether the decision to go to war was to “distract attention from the Epstein files” or instead had “no connection to the Epstein files,” a plurality (43 percent) say the former.
The Reluctant Right are also feeling the impacts of the war more acutely. They report that higher gas prices are affecting them significantly, a problem they blame on President Trump at twice the rate of other segments. Furthermore, the Reluctant Right are four times more likely to say that the war has made them feel less safe rather than safer.
“I am one social security check from having my lights out. I can't afford gas going up like my grocery bill.“
— Amy, 63-year-old White woman and Reluctant Right Trump voter from Walker, Louisiana
3. Generational differences in support for the war are stark.
Among Trump voters, the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers are the most in favor of the war, with three in four expressing support. By contrast, less than half of Millennials (46 percent) express support for the war and among Gen Z opposition (38 percent) is equivalent to support (34 percent).
Younger generations are also less confident in President Trump’s decision-making around the war and more skeptical of the motivations behind it. A significant share (38 percent) of Gen Z Trump voters believe the war was launched to “distract attention from the Epstein files” and 26 percent say it is actively against an “America First” agenda.
“I think it is a pointless war for the United States to be involved in; It will just waste taxpayer dollars. Yes, bad people will be killed in Iran, but America has other problems other than bad people in Iran. This feels like a lot of wars that happen in the Middle East; kill a leader, war starts, war goes on forever, more debt and millions of soldiers sadly lost without a clear goal.”
— Liam, 20-year-old White man and Reluctant Right Trump voter from Peshtigo, Wisconsin
4. The war with Iran reveals a mismatch in priorities between Trump and his voters.
Trump voters’ priorities are clear—and the war with Iran is not among them. Asked to name their top three priorities, the cost of living is unrivaled as Trump voters’ top concern (listed by 60 percent), followed by the economy in general (35 percent), and then immigration (31 percent). The Iran War is tied as the seventh highest priority, cited by 11 percent of Trump voters.
Meanwhile, Trump voters most commonly cite the president’s top priorities as immigration (60 percent list it as a top priority for the president), the Iran War (44 percent), and the economy in general (33 percent). This gap in perceived priorities is particularly pronounced among the Reluctant Right, 70 percent of whom say that the cost of living is a top priority for them—more than any other segment. Only 11 percent of these Trump voters think the cost of living remains a priority for the president. The result is a dissonance between what they care about and where they see the president spending his time, energy and resources.
The perception among the Reluctant Right that President Trump is not focused on their economic challenges and that his choices may even have driven up gas prices, may be exacerbating a growing trend. Today, 35 percent of the Reluctant Right say they have at least some regret about voting for President Trump—a rate that has more than doubled since April of last year. While the war is certainly not the only factor behind these developments, it represents what may be the fundamental challenge for President Trump: convincing Americans that his choices and policies are making their daily lives easier.
Conclusion
The damage to President Trump’s approval with his base should not be overstated. MAGA Hardliners and Anti-Woke Conservatives are largely supportive of the war with Iran and trust the president’s judgment. Mainline Republicans also remain firmly within the coalition. For younger voters and the Reluctant Right however, President Trump may need to act swiftly to reassure them that he sees their needs and is acting on their behalf, particularly with regards to the cost of living.
This won’t prove to be easy. President Trump has limited options for how to proceed with the war without further risking public support. Few Trump voters (39 percent)—and an even smaller share of Americans overall (18 percent)—support sending ground troops to Iran. As the war continues, President Trump’s support may hinge less on the war effort’s success than on the scale of adverse effects of the war on Americans’ daily lives. How Trump addresses those concerns while navigating a successful end to the war will be key to keeping his coalition from eroding further.
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