Beyond MAGA: Immigration Policy
Summary: Two weeks ago, More in Common released the most comprehensive study to date of the Americans who voted for President Trump in November 2024. Beyond MAGA: A Profile of the Trump Coalition provides a detailed segmentation of these voters and their views on the major issues confronting our country and the world. This newsletter is the second in a multi-part series on Beyond MAGA and explores one of the most contentious subjects in the country right now: immigration policy.
BeyondMAGA.us has been featured in Axios, USA Today, and The Atlantic, among others.
To hear directly from the researchers behind the report, sign up for our Beyond MAGA webinar on February 12th, 1:30 PM ET. Register here.
Learn more about the four types of Trump voters: MAGA Hardliners, Anti-Woke Conservatives, Mainline Republicans, and the Reluctant Right at beyondmaga.us. Watch our short video about the Reluctant Right below:
Introduction
The Trump coalition’s consensus on immigration was forged by a sense of urgency about controlling the Southern border. Today, it is united in crediting the Administration for restoring control at the border, but agreement within the coalition breaks down around considerations of due process and methods of deportation.
“I mean, I am sure there are really good people that just want a better life for themselves. I think that is kind of where the soft part of my heart comes in. I fully realize we have to keep the emotions separate. And I think it just has to be a hard line.
I think it got so out of control; we did not have a strong enough leader that now, Trump is just having to clean it all up and try to fix it. If we had had security in place, and rules in place, and even a wall up 10, 15 years ago, we would not be dealing with such mass amounts of people and red tape and all the stuff that goes along with that. I have compassion as a human, but I also understand we have to put ourselves first and our country first.”
Tara, MAGA Hardliner
Age 53 • Native American woman • Mount Pleasant, South Carolina
Five Key Takeaways:
1. The importance of immigration
One of the most stark differences between Republican and Democratic voters in 2024 was their views on the importance of immigration. Among Republicans and Independents, it ranked as the top non-economic issue. In contrast, among Democrats, it did not even register among the top ten.
Concerns about immigration were overwhelmingly focused on the southern border. Trump voters felt that immigration was out of control, with nine in ten likely Trump voters in October 2024 feeling that the situation at the US border with Mexico was an emergency or major problem, a view shared by almost half of Harris voters. A majority of intending Trump voters said that they worried “a great deal” about illegal immigration at the US border, compared to just 9% of Harris voters. Trump’s promise to restore order to America’s borders and its immigration system was an especially important motivator for Trump voters in 2024, including many who had not voted for him in 2020.
2. Prioritizing border enforcement, not opposing immigration
The strong emotions about the border often expressed by many Trump voters can lead to misperceptions that they are against immigration altogether. In fact, while theTrump voters who oppose immigration are very concerned about the issue, the reverse does not hold: many of those who are concerned about immigration actually support immigration in principle, so long as it is legal and well-managed.
The concept of perception gaps helps explain why these findings can be surprising to non-Trump voters. More in Common’s research has shown that polarized societies often experience large perception gaps between opposing groups. On immigration issues, Americans’ perception gaps are especially large and have grown in the past five years. Democrats and Independents estimate that almost five times as many Trump voters hold strongly anti-immigration views than actually do. Trump voters are more than twice as likely to hold a positive view of immigration than Democrats and Independents estimate.
3. Legal versus illegal immigration: A clear distinction
Key to understanding Trump voters’ views on immigration is the distinction between legal and illegal immigration. This distinction explains many attitudinal differences, both among the different Trump voter types, and between Trump voters and other Americans. The difference in sentiment towards legal versus illegal immigrants is much greater among Trump voters than most Americans.
To many Trump voters, entering the United States illegally shows disregard for orderly processes and is unfair to millions of people around the globe who are waiting for their turn to apply to enter, equivalent to cutting in line while others wait patiently. While a minority of Trump voters is altogether opposed to immigration and consistently supportive of the strictest policies of enforcement and detention, most express concern with the lack of control of immigration policy in recent years but support legal immigration in principle. When asked about their warmth or coldness towards immigrants, Trump voters give nearly the same scores as the national average for legal immigrants (71 percent versus 72 percent), showing relatively warm sentiments.
4. Putting Americans first in immigration policy
The view that immigration policy should prioritize the needs of American citizens is a clear point of consensus among Trump voters. More than three in four Trump voters prefer the statement, “It’s patriotic to put the needs of Americans first when making immigration policy” over the alternative that “patriotism means living up to American ideals, including being welcoming to immigrants.”
In contrast, Americans as a whole are split nearly 50-50 on this question. Among the four Trump voter types, there is nevertheless a difference in intensity, with almost all MAGA Hardliners and Anti-Woke Conservatives preferring the ‘Americans first’ approach, while among the other types around one in four choose the alternative focus on welcoming immigrants.
5. Differences within the Trump voter coalition: enforcement, detention, and deportation
Among the four types of Trump voter, two groups consistently adopt the hardest line on immigration issues: MAGA Hardliners and Anti-Woke Conservatives. The Reluctant Right consistently hold the most moderate views and are skeptical of extremes. Mainline Republicans are usually between those two poles.
One illustration of these differences is the Trump Administration’s policy of mass deportations. While a majority of Trump voters (52 percent) support using the military to round up those who came to the US illegally, putting them in mass detention camps, and then deporting them, there is strong support among MAGA Hardliners (73 percent), but much lower support among the Reluctant Right (28 percent support) and Mainline Republicans (46 percent support).
Conclusion
The future of America’s immigration policy will play out not just between Republicans and Democrats, but also within the Republican and Democratic voter coalitions. There are clear differences between Trump voters that are highly motivated by immigration issues and supportive of any and all restrictions, versus the majority of Trump voters who favor controlled immigration but think more in terms of getting the balance right. While MAGA Hardliners and Anti-Woke Conservatives strongly support a tougher approach to immigration, even among their ranks, sizeable minorities hold different views. Trump voters clearly distinguish between legal and illegal immigrants, and their priority is a well-controlled immigration policy rather than reduced numbers and mass deportations. Many express empathy with legal immigrants and still resonate strongly with the idea of the United States as a nation of immigrants.
To read the full chapter on immigration and the rest of the Beyond MAGA report, visit beyondmaga.us. To hear directly from the researchers behind the report, sign up for our Beyond MAGA webinar on February 12th, 1:30 PM ET.
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Brilliant segmentation work here. The legal vs illegal framing reveals something most polling misses- that enforcement hawks and reform advocates aren't neccesarily opposed, they just prioritize different bottlenecks. I ran into this confusion last year trying to explain immigration views to overseas colleagues, and the perception gap data clicks now. What throws me is whether mass deportation rhetoric actually matches what teh base wants or if its just media amplification of the most extreme positions.
I was struck most by the last chart, in comparison to the earlier charts. People want border enforcement and want people to come here legally but the broad public is not supportive of actual enforcement (the question was designed to get at an extreme POV, I get that).
The only real solution is to adopt the European model of heavy fines and criminal liability if you hire a person here illegally. I doubt it will take many multi-million-dollar fines and 5-year prison sentences for executives (that’s the penalty in France) for firms to crack down on hiring people here illegally. Once jobs dry up, people will leave.
Also, the government should create a special program for agricultural workers who need to be in the US for 4 months.